Policy brief

Rates versus Rights? Addressing Declining Fertility Without Imposing Norms

France experiences a sustained decline in its number of births since 2010, with fertility rates now at historically low levels. In this respect, it increasingly resembles most European countries entering a new demographic regime, where fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level over the past two decades.

Published on : 05/05/2026

Temps de lecture

3 minutes

Authors

Césarine Boinet

Cheffe de projet

Constance Desaunettes

Conseillère transversale

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First, desired family size has declined in France. Among younger generations, the ideal number of children now stands at around 2.3, compared with 2.7 twenty-five years ago. Therefore, the central policy challenge is less to increase fertility at all costs than to reduce the gap between desired and realized births.

Second, the recent decline in fertility has occurred in France despite
substantive family policies. This calls for a shift in perspective: the issue is not so much the overall level of support, but the design of policy instruments, how they fit together, and their ability to address the constraints faced by parents when entering into parenthood.

Furthermore, these constraints extend well beyond family policies: income stability, housing costs, job quality, and confidence in the future. In addition, the paper argues that policy responses to this new demographic regime must avoid imposing family norms or undermining sexual and reproductive rights.

Finally, the paper’s contribution lies in comparing French family policies with those of Hungary, Germany, and Sweden to identify the instruments most likely to respond to families’ aspirations.

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